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Title: Iraq: Prospect for Stability
Author(s): Minkov, A.
Corporate author(s): Defence R&D Canada - Center for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ONT (CAN)

Abstract: This Technical Note surveys the political, social and economic developments in Iraq in 2007, as well as the related regional environment. It highlights the improvement of the security situation, which is constrasted to continuous economic underdevelopment and social strife. To establish the prospects of long-term stability in the country, the Technical Note examines the Soviet experience in Afghanistan during the 1980s and concludes that stability is dependent on the Iraqi government assuming a greater degree of legitimacy. An important factor is also whether the Iraqi economy can recover to a level that can sustain such a government without a significant dependency on foreign aid.