A survival analysis of ADM (Materiel) workforce attrition – Examining attrition phenomenon through non- parametric and semi-parametric survival methods


  1. Penney, C.E.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
This paper explores the problem of workforce attrition and the role of economic factors in attrition behaviour. There are two main elements to this study: first, I examine the overall attrition phenomenon using non-parametric and semi-parametric models; second, I consider the role of economic factors by limiting the sample to individuals for whom complete histories are available and then employing a semi-parametric model that allows for time-varying elements. The findings for the primary analysis indicate a strong model fit can be obtained through the inclusion of a few explanatory variables: these are ‘starting age’, ‘starting pensionable years of service’, and ‘gender’. The findings for the secondary analysis provide some evidence of a role in attrition behaviour for economic factors such as ‘salary’ and ‘classification level’, but the effects are offsetting and difficult to distinguish statistically. I recommend that the client provide data with a significantly longer time horizon so that a more precise determination of the role of economic and financial factors can be obtained.

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

workforce attrition;survival analysis;personnel modelling;attrition risk
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2016-R162 — Scientific Report
Date of publication
01 Oct 2016
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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