A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR THE ANALYSIS OF CRISIS AND CONFLICT POTENTIALS

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Authors
  1. Gass, N.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
A novel approach is developed to determine crisis and conflict potentials in a multipolar geopolitical region. The method is based upon a system of first order nonlinear differential equations with time-dependent coefficients. The salient feature of the model is that it interconnects the political, economic and ethnic problems of one country with others in the region. In a first application, the 15 former Soviet republics are modelled and numerical results are given for the five Asian states. It was found that the model works best in a cybernetic mode where the accuracy problem with the input data is not as serious.
Keywords
Conflict analysis;Cybernetic simulation model
Report Number
ORA-DMS-RN-3/94 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Jul 1994
Number of Pages
36
DSTKIM No
94-05151
CANDIS No
144251
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Originator's fiche received by DSIS;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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