FORECASTING CRISIS AND CONFLICT ENTROPIES OF GEOPOLITICAL REGIONS

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Authors
  1. Gass, N.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
Crisis and conflict entropies of geopolitical regions are forecasted by extrapolating a set of broadly based criteria including the internal and external political situations, ethnic and economic problems, and the military strength. Fuzzy sets are introduced into the governing equations to account for the uncertainties of the numerical input values. The ReCCA model also permits the study of crisis and conflict management through the envolvement of international organizations. A case study on the greater Balkan region is performed.
Keywords
Conflict analysis;Politico-military modelling;Maclaurin extrapolation
Report Number
DMS-RN-4/94 — Research Note
Date of publication
12 Aug 1994
Number of Pages
43
DSTKIM No
94-07468
CANDIS No
146362
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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