DETERMINING LOGISTICS REQUIREMENTS FOR READINESS AND SUSTAINMENT: A DELPHI APPROACH

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Authors
  1. Taylor, I.W.
  2. Van Horn, J.
  3. Yip, H.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ONT (CAN)
Abstract
Because of the difficulty obtaining data on the logistics requirements in recent conflicts, the Directorate of Logistics Analysis (D Log A) undertook a survey of expert opinion using a Delphi Approach. Three groups of experts were chosen based on their position in NDHQ and their previous experience in the Air, Land and Maritime elements. Four sequential surveys were conducted on these groups to obtain a list of real historical conflicts of varying intensity and a short list of characteristics of the conflicts that impact on the logistics requirements. It was assumed that the Normal Peacetime rate of expenditure could be determined outside this study in terms of usage per day per man. The groups attempted to estimate the Logistic Multipliers for the Ammunition, Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) and Spare Parts Classes of Supply for each conflict in a our list. The maximum valued conflict was chosen as representative of High Intensity Conflict. The median conflict was chosen for Mid Intensity Conflict and the minimum valued conflict was chosen for Low Intensity Conflict. The responses of the Land and Air groups demonstrated a great deal of consensus and confidence in their results. The Maritime estimates showed a wide range of disparity and had two significant dissenters who did not allow a consensus. We recommend that the Air and Land Multipliers be accepted and the Maritime survey be redone with a different group of experts.
Keywords
Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL)
Report Number
ORA-PR-9527 — Project Report
Date of publication
01 Dec 1995
Number of Pages
101
DSTKIM No
96-01353
CANDIS No
180657
Format(s):
Document Image stored on Optical Disk;Hardcopy

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