MILITARY CASUALTY ESTIMATION FOR REALISTIC CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AGENT CLOUD CONCENTRATION CHALLENGES

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Authors
  1. Yee, E.
  2. Ye, H.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research Establishment Suffield, Ralston ALTA (CAN)
Abstract
A simple and pragmatic methodology for casualty estimation for exposed military personnel in the hazard zone downwind of the release of a chemical or biological warfare (CBW) agent is developed. The use of a non-linear toxic load in conjunction with the probit method for the characterization of the concentration-time mortality response to a constant CBW agent concentration exposure is described. A method is proposed for extrapolating to humans the concentration-time mortality relationships (e.g., non-linear dose-time response models) obtained from acute inhalation toxicity studies in animals. The generalization of the extrapolated non-linear dose-response model for humans to accommodate a random toxic load (such as that obtained from exposure to the fluctuating concentrations in a cloud dispersing in the atmosphere) is investigated. A general expression for the k-th order moment of the random toxic load is derived in terms of the k-time point joint moment of the n-th power of the fluctuating cloud concentration field. TRUNCATED
Keywords
Risk analysis;Hazard assessment;Random Non-linear Toxic Load;Inhalation toxicity;Probit Relationships
Report Number
DRES-661 — Technical Report (Final)
Date of publication
01 Jan 1997
Number of Pages
45
DSTKIM No
97-01367
CANDIS No
501784
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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