RISK ANALYSIS IN ARMS CONTROL INSPECTION WARNINGS

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Authors
  1. Taylor, I.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Operational Research (Joint and Land)
Abstract
With the new Chemical Weapons Inspection Protocol, a participating nation can request an on-site inspection of a facility in another country with only 12 hours notice. Therefore it is extremely important that the message traffic from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and the Department of National Defence be efficient enough to allow the Canadian Forces Base the maximum time to prepare. A Staff Officer in the J3 Arms Control Verification (J3 ACV) organization developed a timeline estimate of the message processing. The author, a member of the Joint Staff Operational Research Team, ran the @RISK analysis tool to determine the probability that a message will be processed by National Defence Headquarters and passed to the Base in one hour. Four potential processing paths were identified by J3 ACV. The normal processing path in Silent Hours was particularly risky. However, a Streamlined path appeared to provide a high reliability that the message would be processed in one hour.
Keywords
Arms Control Verification;Chemical weapons;Time lines;Risk analysis
Report Number
ORD-DOR(J&L)-RN-9703 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Apr 1997
Number of Pages
15
DSTKIM No
97-02495
CANDIS No
502660
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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