THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC MODELLING

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Authors
  1. Solomon, B.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis Establishment, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Social and Economic Analysis
Abstract
One of the most common approaches to forecasting is that of the expert opinion, based on the informed judgement of experts acquainted with the phenomena (variable) in question. Typical of such an approach, the factors relevant to the variable are not considered in the context of an explicit framework. Rather, any factors relevant to the issue are weighted and evaluated subjectively by each expert. This same approach was used during the 25th annual Canadian Economics Association (CEA) meetings to predict the future of econometrics and economic modelling. In the paper the relevance of this approach in analyzing the future of econometrics and economic modelling is examined. While the choice of the forecasting method is appropriate for the variable under question, the factors deemed relevant by the experts are not comprehensive. Furthermore, due to the absence of a panellist from the demand side (that is users of economic models), any future develo9pment in this area is largely ignored. An attempt is made in this study to incorporate the opinions of the demand side and the results show that what the demand side expects from economic models is not compatible with the future envisaged by the supply side (theoretical econometricians, mathematical economists etc.).
Keywords
Jackknife;Bootstrap;Defence economics
Report Number
ORAE-DSEA-SN-11-91 — Staff Note
Date of publication
01 Nov 1991
Number of Pages
28
DSTKIM No
97-03428
CANDIS No
503465
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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