INTRINSIC VARIABILITY OF GeM MEASURES OF PERSONNEL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

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Authors
  1. Kerzner, L.F.
  2. Jesion, A.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Director Operational Research (Corporate, Air & Maritime)
Abstract
The Personnel Operational Research Team (PORT) is concerned about the intrinsic variability of Generic Model (GeM) simulation results. This research note describes a methodology for assessing the variability of GeM output with respect to the selection of random number seeds. The methodology is then used to assess the variability of 15 types of GeM simulation results as personnel system performance measures. It is demonstrated that single run GeM results for personnel flows such as intake, promotion, and release cannot be reliably used in human resource planning - particularly for small populations. However, population and flow averages, together with assessments of long term "trends" in the data, do provide robust measures which are suitable for personnel planning. This research note concludes with suggestions for reducing the variability of GeM simulation results and possible directions for further research.
Keywords
Military Personnel Policy;Military Career Planning;Military Personnel Modeling;Military Occupations
Report Number
ORD-DOR(CAM)-RN-9707 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Nov 1997
Number of Pages
35
DSTKIM No
97-04467
CANDIS No
506717
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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