A MARGINAL ANALYSIS APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT UNDER THE SCENARIO PLANNING FRAMEWORK

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Authors
  1. Taylor, I.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Operational Research (Joint and Land)
Abstract
A model is presented which could be used to conduct risk analysis under the scenario planning framework being developed by the Directorate of Defence Analysis (DDA). DDA has presented a minimum set of 11 scenarios based on the commitments that have been described in the 1994 White Paper. They have developed a work program which over the next 12 months will expand these scenarios, identify the defence capabilities required to be successful in these scenarios, quantify these capabilities, and prioritize the Canadian Forces capability development to provide minimum risk at minimum cost. The following model is suggested as a potential method for quantifying the cost/risk relationship in a realistic manner to optimize the capabilities of the Canadian Forces.
Keywords
Risk management;Risk Analysis;Marginal analysis;Heuritstic methods;Capabilities
Report Number
ORD-DOR(J&L)-RN-9814 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 May 1998
Number of Pages
43
DSTKIM No
98-01857
CANDIS No
508430
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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