Prediction of Shivering Heat Production from Core and Mean Skin Temperatures


  1. Tikuisis, P.
  2. Giesbrecht, G.G.
Corporate Authors
Defence and Civil Inst of Environmental Medicine, Downsview ONT (CAN)
Prediction formulae of shivering metabolism (Mshiv) are critical to the development of models of thermoregulation for cold exposure, especially when the extrapolation of survival times is required. Many such formulae, however, have been calibrated with data that are limited in their range of core temperatures (Tc), seldom involving values of less than 36C. Certain recent studies of cold-water immersion have reported Tc as low as 33.25C. These data comprise measurements of Tc (esophageal) and mean skin temperature (Ts), and metabolism from 14 makes (mean (SD); age = 28 (5) years; height = 1.78 (0.06) m; body mass = 77.7 (6.9) kg; body fat (BF) = 18.4 (4.5)%) during immersion in water as cold as 8C for up to 1 h and subsequent self-rewarming via shivering under dry blanketed conditions. The data contain 3343 observations with mean (SD) Tc and Ts of 35.92 (0.93)C and 23.4 (8.9)C, respectively and have been used to re-examine the prediction of Mshiv. Rates of changes of these temperatures were not used in the analysis. The best fit of the formulae, which are essentially algebraic constructs with and without setpoints, are those with a quadratic expression involving Ts. TRUNCATED
Cold water immersion
Report Number
DCIEM-98-P-25 — Reprint
Date of publication
01 Sep 1998
Number of Pages
Reprinted from
Eur J Appl Physiol, vol 79, 1999, p 221-229
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