A Marginal Analysis Stockpile Planning Program


  1. Taylor, I.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Operational Research (Joint and Land)
The NATO Defence Requirements Review (DRR) has developed 26 Planning Situations for Force Development and Stockpile Guidance. These Planning Situations range from potential Article 5 Operations, to Peace Support Operations and Other Security Interests. The Canadian Department of National Defence has been developing analytical methods for force planning using Scenarios. These methods have included balancing Cost and Risk using Marginal Analysis ("Best Bang for the Buck") algorithms. The salient feature of these models is that they result in an intuitive graphical presentation of Cost and Risk in which Risk is reduced as Cost increases. However, there is a state of diminishing returns in which inordinate Cost is incurred to remove the last percentages of Risk. The Canadian Marginal Analysis approach has been adapted, in the following paper, to the NATO Planning Situations to examine the Cost/Risk relationship in the Ammunition Stockpiles. Using this method, military decision-makers can develop an "optimal" Ammunition Stockpile that achieves "maximum" cost savings (i.e. the Peace Dividend) at "minimum" risk of running out of ammunition.
Report Number
ORD-DOR(J&L)-RN-9901 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Apr 1999
Number of Pages
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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