Warning Time, Production Lead-Time and Stockpile Costs

Authors
  1. Taylor, I.W.
  2. Richardson, J.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Operational Research (Joint and Land)
Abstract
A risk management approach is applied to determine the ammunition stockpile levels in order to minimize the overall costs within the predefined scenarios of a no-notice mid-intensity conflict and a high-intensity conflict with significant warning time. This approach compares the stockpiling costs against the cost of maintaining a surge production capability, which may be activated at the beginning of the warning time. Significant factors being considered in the model are production lead-time, warning time and production and stockpiling costs. If we are to minimize costs and risk, we observe, for given costs, that high-intensity conflicts call for surge production to start only upon receipt of a warning, where lead-time is about one half of the warning time, while stockpiling is mandatory in a no-notice mid-intensity conflict scenario.
Report Number
ORD-DOR(J&L)-RN-9911 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Oct 1999
Number of Pages
22
DSTKIM No
CA000241
CANDIS No
512084
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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