A Methodology for Modelling Families of Military Occupations to Forecast Attrition

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Authors
  1. Berthiaume, A.
  2. Jesion, A.
  3. Kerzner, L.F.
  4. Collin, I.A.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Director Operational Research (Corporate, Air & Maritime);Operational Research Div, Ottawa Ont (CAN) Directorate of Strategic Human Resource Co-Ordination
Abstract
As Project Director for the retention portion of the Defence Planning Guidance (DPG) Change Objective 6.1 "Recruitment and Retention", the Director Military Employment Policy (DMEP) requested that DSHRC carry out a historical analysis of military attrition and forecast what attrition is likely to be in the future. DMEP requested that the analysis be conducted in "nests" of related military occupations (MOCs) rather than by individual MOC. This report describes the methodology being used for this study. The methodology is illustrated with an example - the Air Technical Non Commissioned Member (NCM) MOCs. In this example, the Air Technical NCM MOCs were first modelled individually and the attrition forecasts combined by weighting them in proportion to the population of each component MOC. These results compare favourably with those obtained by using a "nest" model approach.
Keywords
Military human resources;Military occupations;Military personnel modelling;Military personnel policy;Operational Research Models;Operational Research and Analysis;Military attrition
Report Number
ORD-DOR(CAM)-RN-2000-03 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Jun 2000
Number of Pages
43
DSTKIM No
CA001972
CANDIS No
513857
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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