Improved modelling of capsize risk in random seas

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Authors
  1. McTaggart, K.A.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research Establishment Atlantic, Dartmouth NS (CAN)
Abstract
This report presents an improved method for predicting capsize risk of intact ships in random seaways. Time domain ship motion predictions are coupled with input probabilistic data describing environmental and ship operational conditions. Building upon earlier work, this report further examines the prediction of roll angle exceedence probabilities for given conditions using results from limited numbers of simulations. Distribution free estimates and fitted Gumbel distributions give good predictions or roll exceedence probabilities for given conditions. Error estimates are presented for capsize risk predictions based on limited numbers of simulations. Required simulation time has been reduced by restricting simulations to wave conditions which are physically possible and are associated with non-negligible capsize risks. Sample computations for a Halifax class frigate demonstrate application of the method.
Keywords
Capsizing;Time domain;Dynamic stability;Severe seas
Report Number
DREA-TM-2000-137 — Technical Memorandum
Date of publication
01 Dec 2000
Number of Pages
168
DSTKIM No
CA010439
CANDIS No
515316
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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