Probabilistric service life assessment of missile structures


  1. Akpan, U.O.
  2. Wong, F.
Corporate Authors
MARTEC Ltd, Halifax NS (CAN);Defence Research Establishment Valcartier, Valcartier QUE (CAN)
Tactical missiles that use solid rocket motors are stored under controlled thermal conditions or deployed at geographical locations under widely varying weather conditions that are best described as random proceses. Depending on the storage conditions, a motor may be subjected to changing ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind, rain and snow, resulting in randomly varying induced stresses, strains and cumulative damage which may exceed the strength and strain capacities of the propellant. This could give rise to cracks that could induce failure upon firing. The motivations for service life assessment is the detection of propellant degradation and the prediction of the end life before it actually occurs. An approach for proabilistic service life assessment of missile systems that incorporates structural degradation due to thermal loading cycles is developed. Probabilistic models for daily thermal load cycles is formulated and incorporated into structural response models for rocket motors. Probabilistic models for a missile structural capacity are proposed and calibrated from measured data. Performance functions for assessing the service life of stored missiles are developed. First Order Reliability Method (SORM) is used to calculate instantaneous reliability of a missile structure. Methodology for computing the time dependent reliability of a degrading missile structure is developed. TRUNCATED
Report Number
DREA-SR-2001-094-SES-IX-PAP-42 — CONTAINED IN CA011837
Date of publication
01 Oct 2001
Number of Pages
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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