Scenario Operational Capability Risk Assessment Model (SOCRAM). A Review of Methodology and Application

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Authors
  1. Benoit, P.M.
  2. Burton, R.M.H.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Operational Research (Maritime, Land & Air)
Abstract
The Scenario Operational Capability Risk Assessment Model (SOCRAM) was introduced by the Strategic Planning Operational Research Team (SPORT) as a tool to address questions involving the concurrent activation of scenario operations. As SOCRAM was utilized in the Force Structure Exercise process for the air force, SPORT began to extend the model's capabilities - anticipating its possible application to land and maritime force planning problems. This report documents the Maritime Operational Research Team's review of the SOCRAM model, and discusses its application to maritime force planning. The report serves as a part of the validation process for the model. The scope of the model, the methodology, and the assumptions resulting from the methodological choices are all discussed in some detail. The authors propose a revised probability structure for the model, and discuss the concept of risk and how that might evolve as part of the SOCRAM methodology. A revised SOCRAM methodology has the potential to be a useful component in decision support to force employment problems. Its flexibility allows it to keep pace with discussions, and its high level approach allows a very large number of planning options to be considered quickly. It is clearly a tool capable of removing from consideration those options that do not require more detailed investigation.

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Keywords
Scenario Operational Capability Risk Assessment Model;SOCRAM;Strategic Planning Operations Research;Force Planning Scenarios;Scenario Concurrence;Model Validation;Mathematical Simulation;Risk;Consequence;Defence Service Program update;DSPU
Report Number
ORD-DOR(MLA)-RN-2002-02 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Mar 2002
Number of Pages
51
DSTKIM No
CA020590
CANDIS No
517303
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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