Alternate Futures Scenario Planning

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Authors
  1. Johnston, P.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research Div, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate CORP
Abstract
Analysis of the future is a difficult proposition, but necessary in order to develop rational and robust force structure and military strategy. In order to reduce the difficulty inherent in futures analysis, it is useful to develop processes for doing so. Arguably, futures analysis is best conducted through the development of alternate futures scenarios against which the value of long range planning decisions can be judged. There are numerous methods of development of alternate future scenarios; each has its own merits and flaws. This paper examines two of these models, a linear projection and a quadrant model (sub-set of orthogonal projection), and argues that the latter is generally more useful and less biased. It also outlines a process that DND/CF planners could use to create these models and facilitate their thinking about the future. This process is based on the model used by ADM/(HR-Mil) staff in developing the alternate futures scenarios used in support of HR Strategy 2020.

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Keywords
ALTERNATE FUTURE SCENARIOS;HR STRATEGY 2020;FORCE PLANNING SCENARIOS
Report Number
ORD-DOR(CORP)-RN-2003-10 — Research Note
Date of publication
01 Dec 2003
Number of Pages
16
DSTKIM No
CA023794
CANDIS No
521204
Format(s):
Document Image stored on Optical Disk

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