Stochastic and Life Raft Boarding Predictions in the Cold Exposure Survival Model (CESM v3.0)


  1. Tikuisis, P.
  2. Keefe, A.A.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Toronto, Toronto ONT (CAN)
The Cold Exposure Survival Model (CESM) was originally developed as a decision aid for Search and Rescue (SAR) to predict times to the limits of cognitive function and survival (from lethal hypothermia) under conditions of cold exposure. Its predictions are deterministic based on an individual’s physical characteristics, exposure conditions, and clothing worn. In many situations, these details are unknown making it difficult to apply CESM with certainty. An algorithm is herein described that yields stochastic predictions of survival time (ST) based on gender and an age range without specification of the casualty’s weight and height. Another concern of SAR operators is the ability of water-immersed survivors to self-board a life raft. Baseline data of boarding performance were used to generate an algorithm to predict the success/failure rate of self-boarding. The resultant outputs of these two algorithms, expressed as percentiles of ST and time limit of successfully boarding a life raft against exposure time, should markedly augment the use of the revised CESM as a SAR decision aid.

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water immersion, survival probability, sea survival, Monte Carlo simulation
Report Number
DRDC-TORONTO-TR-2005-097 — Technical Report
Date of publication
01 Jun 2005
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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