Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment

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Authors
  1. Leung, K.
  2. Verga, S.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
Abstract
Decision and risk analysis models often require both qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertain events; in many cases, expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. Over the last decade, uncertainty analysis has become an increasingly important part of operations research models. The growing use of risk assessment in government and corporate planning and operations has also increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for decision making. Elicitation of experts’ opinions is frequently used to support decision making in many different areas, from forecasting in the financial world to assessing the risk of terrorist attacks in the national security domain. The use of expert judgements has provoked questions related to the practice of utilizing experts’ opinions and to the accuracy of the obtained results. This work reviews some approaches for eliciting and aggregating expert judgements as inputs into the risk assessment process, and looks at methods of assessing the degree of confidence associated with these subjective inputs, as well as confidence in the overall process. The research synthesized in this report outlines the elicitation process and highlights both its statistical and psychological perspectives. It looks at ways to evaluate the accuracy of elicitation; it presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions from multiple experts; and it summarizes a conceptual framework for the quality verif

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Report Number
DRDC-CORA-TM-2007-57 — Technical Memorandum
Date of publication
01 Dec 2007
Number of Pages
58
DSTKIM No
CA030513
CANDIS No
529083
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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