Violations of coherence in subjective probability – A representational and assessment processes account

Violations de la cohérence dans la probabilité subjective – Bilan des processus de représentation et d’évaluation

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Authors
  1. Mandel, D.R.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Toronto, Toronto ONT (CAN);Toronto Univ, Toronto ONT (CAN)
Abstract
Coherent judgment is a cardinal feature of rational cognition. Six experiments revealed systematic violations of coherence in probability judgment in which participants assigned different probabilities to mathematically equiprobable events. Experiments 1-5 revealed a strict refocusing effect: Compared to an occurrence frame, a non-occurrence frame resulted in higher estimates if base-rate evidence favored occurrence, lower estimates if evidence favored non-occurrence, and similar estimates if evidence supported indifference. Moreover, Experiments 5 and 6 revealed a pessimistic bias in which the less favorable of two equiprobable events was assigned greater probability. The findings support a Representational and Assessment Processes account (RAP) in which subjective probability is influenced by the perceived compatibility between representations of focal events and representations of evidence.

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Keywords
probability judgment, coherence, representation, assessment, compatibility, fram
Report Number
DRDC-TORONTO-SL-2007-037 — Scientific Literature
Date of publication
01 Mar 2007
Number of Pages
29
DSTKIM No
CA032075
CANDIS No
531117
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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