Chemical, Biological, Radiological/Nuclear and Explosive Risk Assessment – An Analytical Hierarchy Approach

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Authors
  1. Friesen, S.K.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Security Science, Ottawa ONT (CAN)
Abstract
This paper describes the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process to assess hypothetical risks of representative terrorist-initiated chemical, biological, radiological/nuclear and explosive hazard scenarios. A Multi-Attribute Decision Model was created to evaluate these representative scenarios according to their relative technical feasibility, impact and likelihood of occurrence in order to generate a shortlist of priorities. The model, which was created using the software tool Expert Choice 11, is described in detail. A sensitivity analysis on the data is performed to illustrate how changes in criteria weights can affect the results of the assessment. This paper can be used to assist the public security community in refining the tools, methods and approaches for risk assessment.

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Keywords
Multi-attribute decision model AHP;CBRNE hazard scenarios;Expert Choice 11;Analytical hierarchy process;Risk assessment;Decision analysis;Risk analysis
Report Number
DRDC-CSS-TN-2008-08 — Note
Date of publication
01 Nov 2008
Number of Pages
34
DSTKIM No
CA032302
CANDIS No
531483
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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