Are risk assessments of a terrorist attack coherent?

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Authors
  1. Mandel, D.R.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Toronto, Toronto ONT (CAN)
Abstract
This article examined violations of coherence in forecasting the risk of a terrorist attack. In Experiments 1a and 1b, unpacking the risk of attack into Al-Qaeda or non-Al-Qaeda sources produced an increase in assessed risk (the unpacking effect), and deriving risk forecasts of attack by subtracting the probability of no attack from unity produced an even greater inflation of assessed risk (the refocusing effect). Experiments 2 and 3 revealed that the refocusing effect is partly due to a variant of focalism in judgment. Violations of extensional forecasting across timeframes were also observed in Experiments 1a, 1b, and 2. The findings demonstrate multiple violations of forecasting coherence in an important socio-political domain.

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Keywords
Risk forecasting;coherence violations;additivity;terrorism
Report Number
DRDC-TORONTO-SL-2005-081 — Scientific Literature
Date of publication
01 Feb 2005
Number of Pages
14
Reprinted from
Journal of Experimental Phychology, vol 11, no 4, 2005, p 277-288.
DSTKIM No
CA032528
CANDIS No
531708
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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