Optimal Fleet Replacement and Forecasting Under Uncertainty – The CP-140A Arcturus Maritime Surveillance Aircraft

PDF

Authors
  1. Maybury, D.W.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN);Directorate Materiel Group Operational Research, Ottawa Ont (CAN)
Abstract
Using the CP-140A Arcturus maritime surveillance aircraft as a case study, we examine fleet replacement and overhaul decisions by applying the same stochastic techniques used to price financial derivatives. We construct a stochastic fleet replacement/overhaul model with forecasting capabilities for the CP-140A using historical operation and maintenance costs along with historical operational availability trends. Our model uses a class of utility functions based on operational availability for discounting purposes, and the model balances tradeoffs between costs, availability, and uncertainty. We find that the effects of uncertainty in both costs and availability play a non-trivial role in establishing the optimal replacement time. Through the underlying stochastic process driving the fleet costs, we develop forecast envelopes using the parameters of the model. We see this model as having potential for application to other fleets, systems, and subsystems that exhibit stochastic operation and maintenance costs.

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Keywords
National Procurement (Materiel);Fleet Replacement;Life-Cycle Costing;Forecasting;Stochastic Differential Equation;CP-140A Arcturus;Mean First Passage Time;Bellman's Principle
Report Number
DRDC-CORA-TR-2009-001 — Technical Report
Date of publication
01 Mar 2009
Number of Pages
74
DSTKIM No
CA032637
CANDIS No
531837
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

Permanent link

Document 1 of 1

Date modified: