The Scoring of Integrative Complexity as a Tool in Forecasting Adversary Intentions – Three Case Studies

Cotation de la complexité intégrative comme moyen de prédire les intentions de l’adversaire – Trois études de cas

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Authors
  1. Suedfeld, P.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Toronto, Toronto ONT (CAN);British Columbia Univ, Vancouver BC (CAN)
Abstract
The scoring of integrative complexity (IC) from archival materials has been shown to forecast outbreaks of war vs. peacefully negotiated agreements in a number of international crises. In scoring documents and other verbal materials released by national leaders and leadership groups, maintained or increased IC prior to the outcome of the confrontation precedes a peaceful resolution; a drop in IC within approximately six months prior to resolutions precedes the outbreak of war. These findings have been replicated in historical events where wars occurred as the culmination of cycles of escalation, surprise strategic attacks, and persistent international rivalries.

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Keywords
Integrative Complexity;Prediction;Conflict;War;Russia;Georgia;Zimbabwe;al-Qaeda;Osama bin Laden;Terrorism;Adversarial Intent;Psychology
Report Number
DRDC-TORONTO-CR-2010-039 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
30 Apr 2010
Number of Pages
42
DSTKIM No
CA034439
CANDIS No
534014
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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