Arctic Planning Scenarios – Scenario #1 - Defence Scenario


  1. Avis, P.
  2. Mugridge, D.
  3. Race, P.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN);Lansdowne Technologies Inc, Ottawa Ont (CAN);CAE Professional Services, Ottawa (ON)
With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have focused on the future of the Arctic. DRDC CORA has taken on a number of research projects, including the development of two Arctic security scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with a view to developing scenarios for future planning and assisting operational commands in their interactions with other operations centres. This report presents one of two scenarios, focused on a defence-centric response scenario. The scenario makes use of the CIT to present an overview of the current situation and presents a projection out to 2015 to set context for a security environment in which there are significant tensions between Canada and Russia over arctic sovereignty. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, the research was not based on any intelligence assessments and is not intended to be considered a probable future. Rather, it presents a context to test a range of capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives.

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Arctic;Scenario Development;Capability Based Planning;Defence
Report Number
DRDC-CORA-CR-2011-117 — Contract Report
Date of publication
01 Jul 2011
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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