Arctic Planning Scenarios – Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario


  1. Mugridge, D.
  2. Race, P.
  3. Avis, P.
  4. Friesen, S.
  5. Archambault, P.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN);Lansdowne Technologies Inc, Ottawa Ont (CAN);CAE Professional Services, Ottawa (ON)
With the change in Northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have focused on the future of the Arctic. DRDC CORA has taken on a number of thrusts, including the development of a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with a view to developing scenarios for future planning. This report presents one of two scenarios, focused on a public safety and security-centric response scenario. The scenario makes use of the CIT to present an overview of the current situation, presents a projection out to 2020 to set context for a security environment in which illegal trafficking via northern routes poses a significant challenge to security in the Arctic. It is designed to stimulate several functions and mandates involved in Canadian emergency response and management, focusing on eliciting a Whole of Government (WoG) response. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, it is not based on any intelligence assessments and is not intended to be considered a likely future. Rather, it presents a context for testing a range of capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives.

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Arctic;Scenario Development;Capability Based Planning;Defence
Report Number
DRDC-CORA-CR-2011-098 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
01 Jul 2011
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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