Rethinking Strategic Surprise – Defence Planning Under “Bounded Uncertainty”

Authors
  1. Greene, B.G.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
Abstract
This Technical Memorandum contends that the defence planning process is ill served by the assumption that uncertainty abounds. To the extent that uncertainty poses a serious impediment to effective defence planning against the threat of strategic surprise, it is a problem circumscribed by relatively firm knowledge as to the potential sources of danger. Accordingly, I propose recasting the problem of strategic surprise as one of “bounded uncertainty.” The argument is empirically illustrated through an examination of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Report Number
DRDC-CORA-TM-2010-186 — Technical Memorandum
Date of publication
01 Aug 2010
Number of Pages
42
DSTKIM No
CA035805
CANDIS No
535355
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

Permanent link

Document 1 of 1

Date modified: