A risk-based multi-criteria approach for threat COAs evaluation in the IPB/IPOE process

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Authors
  1. Frini, A.
  2. Bergeron-Guyard, A.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Valcartier, Valcartier QUE (CAN)
Abstract
This paper focuses on the IPB/IPOE process in a COIN context and more specifically deals with the generation and evaluation of threat COAs. The paper objectives are twofold. It presents i) a high level description of a self inference system prototype which aims at supporting threat COAs generation in the IPB/IPOE process, and ii) proposes a risk-based multi-criteria approach for the evaluation of threat COAs under uncertainty. The self inference prototype generates threat COAs using a variety of reasoning techniques: inference component (rule-based, description logics, kinematic and geo-spatial analysis), case-based reasoning, multiple hypothesis situation analysis, and threat analysis ontology. Once the set of threat COAs is generated, COAs are evaluated using a risk-based multi-criteria approach. This approach takes into account i) multiple conflicting criteria, ii) the risk attitude of the analyst, iii) the risk as a criteria of evaluation, and iv) the uncertainty (ambiguity, imprecision) of the data. More specifically, uncertainty due to subjective human judgments, preferences, values and risk attitude is modeled. In addition, the ratings of threat COAs on panoply of conflicting criteria, related to suitability, risk, complexity and loss of opportunities, are expressed in linguistic terms. Then, these terms are transformed into fuzzy numbers in order to properly deal with the uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach takes into consideration the risk attitude of the intellig
Report Number
DRDC-VALCARTIER-SL-2011-527 — Scientific Literature
Date of publication
01 Oct 2011
Number of Pages
16
DSTKIM No
CA036593
CANDIS No
536357
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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