Historical Data Review of Radicalization and the Economy in Canada

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Authors
  1. Gauthier, M.
  2. Lamoureux, T.
  3. Samy, Y.
  4. Race, P.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Toronto, Toronto ONT (CAN);CAE Professional Services, Ottawa (ON)
Abstract
A contract was awarded to perform a statistical time series analysis on readily available open-source data concerning economic indicators and radicalization over the past 100 years. Upon commencing this work, it became clear that it was difficult to obtain comprehensive radicalization data going back 100 years, although there were good data from 1960 onwards. It also became clear that these data were not in electronic form and therefore needed to be manually entered into a brand new database. This database, combining socio-political, economic and radicalization data, was duly compiled and used to perform several statistical analyses, including simple descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, time series analysis, and simple and multiple linear regression. Although one might intuitively assume that poverty or economic hardship are inexorably linked with radicalization, violent extremism and terrorism, the statistical analyses performed for this contract do not support this assumption. Of the 31 socio-political and economic variables, only those pertaining to urban and rural population ratios were statistically significantly related to total number of radical events. The database nevertheless provides a basis for future detailed analyses of open-source regional economic and radicalization data, or classified versions of the same.

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Keywords
economic conditions;radicalization;events database;violent extremism
Report Number
DRDC-TORONTO-CR-2012-006 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
01 Jan 2012
Number of Pages
94
DSTKIM No
CA037527
CANDIS No
537388
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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