Analysis of Marine Traffic along Canada’s Coasts – Phase 2 – Part 1: Factors Influencing Arctic Traffic

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Authors
  1. Engler, C.
  2. Pelot, R.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN);DALHOUSIE UNIV, HALIFAX NS (CAN) MARITIME ACTIVITY AND RISK INVESTIGATION (MARIN) RESEARCH GROUP
Abstract
This document describes the results of Phase 2 – Part 1 of the Analysis of Marine Traffic (AMT) Project, conducted under contract W7714-093795. The purpose of this Part is to scope out the various factors that can influence maritime traffic patterns in the Canadian Arctic to the year 2020. The patterns of interest are categorized by ship type, activity type, and location (spatial patterns of the routes). The results will serve as the foundation for the variables included in Phase 2 – Part 2 of the project, during which traffic projections will be modeled. The method was to conduct a thorough survey of the literature, determine what key factors affect current and projected traffic patterns, and identify what sources of information can be used to establish a base case, low case, and high case for each factor. Furthermore, information on current and forecasted ice conditions is summarized, such as the extent, seasonality, and type of ice that will affect accessibility of the various northern routes. All these factors are organized into a framework that will provide structure for developing the traffic forecasting model. The report recommends factors that are the most important to include, and discusses limitations of the information presented.

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Report Number
DRDC-CORA-CR-2013-065 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
01 May 2013
Number of Pages
131
DSTKIM No
CA037865
CANDIS No
537704
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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