All Hazards Risk Assessment – Documenting the Calibration Process and Methodology


  1. Bayne, I.
  2. Duncan, J.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Security Science, Ottawa ONT (CAN)
The All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA) Interdepartmental Risk Assessment Working Group (IRAWG) uses a scenario-based risk assessment to support federal emergency planning and policy development, and departmental efforts to prioritize risk within their respective mandates. In 2010, Public Safety Canada (PS) stated the requirement to create a common picture of all-hazards risks. They requested that results for the assessment of risks assessments derived from malicious (e.g., terrorist act; cyber-attack; organized crime, etc.) and non-malicious (e.g., natural disasters; industrial accidents, etc.) threats and hazards be presented on a common two-dimensional graph. In support of this objective, the Centre for Security Science (CSS) is evaluating techniques to address these requirements including calibration of likelihood and impact estimates derived from different methods. CSS, working together with security, intelligence and risk domain experts, is evaluating approaches to calibrate malicious and non-malicious risk assessments. This Contractor Report (CR) documents the likelihood calibration technique and the discusses the overall risk analysis process with a view to identifying implications for future work and to transition to a streamlined national risk assessment process. The main recommendation is that PS/CSS continue to collect data on the challenges associated with implementing the current process and methodology for one or two more cycles, as a basis upon which to assess

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All Hazards;Risk Assessment;Emergency Management
Report Number
DRDC-CSS-CR-2013-016 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
01 Sep 2013
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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