Analysis of Marine Traffic along Canada's Coasts – Phase 2 - Part 2: A spatio-temporal simulation model for forecasting marine traffic in the Canadian Arctic in 2020

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Authors
  1. Étienne, L.
  2. Pelot, R.
  3. Engler, C.
Corporate Authors
Defence R&D Canada - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN);DALHOUSIE UNIV, HALIFAX NS (CAN) MARITIME ACTIVITY AND RISK INVESTIGATION (MARIN) RESEARCH GROUP
Abstract
This document describes the results of the study conducted as Phase 2 – Part 2 of the Analysis of Marine Traffic (AMT) Project, conducted under contract W7714-093795. The purpose of this Part is to develop a spatio-temporal model that can be used to represent current maritime traffic in the Canadian Arctic and sub-arctic, and also simulate future traffic projections. The simulation model comprises a network of feasible routes connecting possible areas where vessels may go, such as communities, mines, offshore developments, and fishing grounds. A route is deemed feasible based on water depth and ice conditions, depending on the vessel type. Specifically, a simulation was run for the year 2020, based on key drivers that may lead to changes in traffic in terms of activity type, vessel mix, volume by vessel type, location, and timing. The search for, and extraction of, resources are major drivers of arctic traffic, encompassing oil and gas, mining and fishing. Increased cruise ship tourism is likely in the North, and the sealift operation to supply communities is contingent on population changes and spending patterns. Pleasure boating levels are largely tied to community population as well. However, there is great uncertainty around most of these factors as well as the ice predictions for the year 2020, therefore the simulation model relies on Monte Carlo simulation to account for the range of possible values. Maps are generated for the forecast traffic, and the simulation mode

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Report Number
DRDC-CORA-CR-2013-214 — Contractor Report
Date of publication
01 Dec 2013
Number of Pages
198
DSTKIM No
CA038332
CANDIS No
538451
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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