THE EFFECT OF INTERMEDIATE OPTIONS ON THE PROBABILITY OF ESCALATION

Authors
  1. Betts, G.C.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis Establishment, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
A model is described which shows the effect of intermediate options on the probability of a conventional war escalating to the strategic nuclear level. The results of the model indicate that the effect of deploying intermediate options depends on two major factors: the probability of intermediate options being used, and the effect of these options on escalation if used. No matter how "escalatory" any particular option may be considered, its effect on the overall probability of a conventional war escalating to a strategic war would depend on external factors which determine whether it would be used.
Report Number
ORAE-DSA-STAFF-NOTE-88/5 — Staff Note
Date of publication
15 Feb 1988
Number of Pages
32
DSTKIM No
88-01635
CANDIS No
54866
Format(s):
Microfiche filmed at DSIS;Originator's fiche received by DSIS;Hardcopy

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