CLIMATE WARMING, WATER RESOURCES AND GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT: A STUDY OF NATIONS DEPENDENT ON THE NILE, LITANI AND JORDAN RIVER SYSTEMS

Authors
  1. Lonergan, S.
Corporate Authors
Operational Research and Analysis Establishment, Ottawa ONT (CAN) Directorate of Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
The purposes of the study were to assess the extent to which climate warming is expected to occur in the Middle East, to identify the potential impacts of climate warming on the resources of the Nile, Jordan and Litani River systems and to estimate the extent to which these potential impacts might contribute to political instability in the region. General circulation models of the atmosphere were used to project changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in the region under a scenario of doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The models estimate a general warming for the region and a slight decrease in precipitation. This will, in turn, reduce the amount of freshwater available to the region. With water a major source of political instability in the region, the climate warming will have security implications. More important, however, are the rapid population growth and increase in agricultural output. TRUNCATED
Report Number
ORAE-EXTRA-MURAL-PAPER-55 — Extra-Mural-Paper
Date of publication
15 Mar 1991
Number of Pages
133
DSTKIM No
91-03484
CANDIS No
70675
Format(s):
Hardcopy;Originator's fiche received by DSIS

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