On the prioritization of the review of contingency plans for the Canadian Armed Forces


  1. Pall, R.
  2. Caron, J.-D.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) have contingency plans (CONPLANs) in place to deal with a variety of scenarios, ranging from disaster relief and humanitarian aid to international counter-terrorism. These CONPLANs are periodically reviewed and updated to ensure they remain relevant to ever-changing operating environments. The establishment of a CONPLAN review schedule is a challenging process for the CAF given the status and importance of each CONPLAN and the limited capacity of the staff available to conduct the reviews. This paper addresses the joint problem of prioritization of the CONPLAN reviews and calculation of the optimal set of the plans to review within a given time period. The CONPLANs were evaluated against a set of criteria by military subject matter experts, with weights of the criteria provided on an ordinal scale. The volume of the weight-space associated to each of the possible rankings of the CONPLANs was computed through Monte Carlo simulation, and the expected rank of each CONPLAN was determined by viewing the results of this multi-criteria decision analysis in terms of the probability associated to each ranking. The optimal set of CONPLANs to review within a given time period (with an associated resource capacity) was calculated by formulating the problem as an instance of the knapsack problem. A recent application of this methodology is provided in this paper.
multi-criteria decision analysis;MCDA;contingency plans;knapsack problem;rankings;decision support
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2014-P119 — External Literature
Date of publication
13 Mar 2015
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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