Reliability-Based Assessment of Routes and Operational Conditions for Short Term Transit of a Damaged Ship


  1. Akpan, U.O.
  2. Koko, T.S.
  3. Yuen, B.K.
  4. Lin, F.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Atlantic Research Centre, Halifax NS (CAN)
The current study presents a reliability-based assessment of short term transit of a damaged ship in which the effects of different routings and vessel speeds on probability of failure are compared. It builds on a methodology developed in a series of previous studies, using improved probabilistic models for extreme wave loads that encapsulate different ship headings, speeds and uncertainty inherent in seasonal sea state conditions, along with probabilistic models that reflect changes in the vessel capacity due to the gross damage and rupture of the primary structure. Both linear and non-linear structural integrity performance functions suitable for assessing the reliability of a damaged vessel are formulated based on the damaged hull girder bending strength. The methodology is applied to a surface combatant vessel dam-aged by collision with a larger vessel, resulting in a flooded compartment and severe structural damage to the side shell and weather deck. Two different transit routes and two different transit speeds are evaluated to determine the combination with the lowest probability of hull girder failure during transit. The results show that an interactive safety margin model that combines the vertical and horizontal bending components in the integrity assessment is more reliable than a linear model that uses only the vertical bending component. The comparison of the two vessel routes at two transit speeds shows that a fast transit over the shortest route produces the low
ship structure;reliability;damage;ultimate strength;hull girder;spectral wave loading
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2016-N017 — External Literature
Date of publication
29 Sep 2016
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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