Schedule Risk Analysis for Defence Acquisition Projects


  1. Sokri, A.
  2. Ghanmi, A.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
Project scheduling is an important component of project management. In the defence acquisition context, projects usually have extended and complicated schedules that can be affected by various sources of uncertainty. Examples of risks for project schedules include technology readiness, contracting delivery, learning curve estimation, decision delay, etc. Handling this uncertainty has been an ongoing challenge for military decision makers for many decades. Schedule risk affects not only the completion time but also the cost and the overall performance of the acquisition project. In this paper, a comprehensive review of theoretical methods for analyzing schedule risk of defence acquisition projects is discussed and presented. A novel schedule risk analysis approach integrating Monte Carlo simulation, decision analysis and optimization techniques is proposed to determine the expected critical path and completion time of an acquisition project. The approach determines a ranking probability matrix for the different critical paths of the project schedule. The condition that defines a particular critical path ranking as most probable is described in the context of an assignment problem. The most probable critical path is then found by solving the assignment problem using the path ranking probability matrix. Once the expected critical path is determined, an “S” curve is used to portray the schedule risk and to estimate the project schedule buffer for different confidence levels.
schedule risk;schedule buffer;military;aircraft
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2016-P049 — External Literature
Date of publication
02 Nov 2016
Number of Pages
Electronic Document(PDF)

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