Cost risk analysis and learning curve in the military shipbuilding sector

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Authors
  1. Sokri, A.
  2. Ghanmi, A.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Ottawa ON (CAN)
Abstract
The learning curve shows how unit costs can be expected to fall over time. It has been demonstrated that learning is a major cost risk driver in defence acquisition projects. It can be affected by changes in processes, resource availability, and worker interest. This paper examines the risk that military ship builders may not realise expected production efficiencies. A probabilistic risk approach is used to portray the learning curve risk and estimate the corresponding cost contingency. A case study using a military shipbuilding project is presented and discussed to illustrate the methodology.
Keywords
Risk analysis;cost contingency;learning curve;military;shipbuilding
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2018-P021 — External Literature
Date of publication
01 Mar 2018
Number of Pages
18
Reprinted from
International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, vol. 9, no. 4, 2017, p. 300 313
DSTKIM No
CA045800
CANDIS No
806254
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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