A mid-way point on Futures Assessed alongside socio-Technical Evolutions (FATE)

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Authors
  1. Adlakha-Hutcheon, G.
  2. Bin-Hassan, F.
  3. Bown, K.
  4. Kivelin, J.
  5. Lindberg, A.
  6. Maltby, J.-F.J.
  7. Molder, C.
  8. Peters, C.E.
  9. Rizzo, G.
  10. Roemer, S.
  11. Temiz, A.
  12. Tocher, M.
Corporate Authors
Defence Research and Development Canada, Ottawa Ont (CAN) Corporate Office
Abstract
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Systems Analysis Studies Research Task Group 123 (NATO SAS-123) was created with the objective of studying the interactions between diverse futures and socio-technical evolutions concurrently. In particular, it was formed to (1) develop criteria to evaluate and analyze the interactions between these two variables and (2) assess the ability of these two variables to cause disruptions in defence and security. The novelty of the study meant that there was interest from a third of NATO member nations and NATO Allied Command Transformation (NATO ACT). Most futures researchers tend to create scenarios or descriptions of the state of the world at a designated time; other guestimate what trends will be prevalent in the future; and, still others try to forecast technologies that will be disruptive. The success of these different approaches is debated as they lack empirical evidence that they improve performance in planning and decision-making. Existing studies do not specifically examine futures concurrently with disruptive elements to such futures, in a strucutred way. Our NATO SAS-123 study group thus proposes a method titled Futures Assessed alongside socio-Technical Evolutions (FATE). We believe this work to be especially useful for defence and security decision-makers, as it promises to enable them to make better informed decisions on socio-technical disruptors in the context of described futures. This document records the method as presente

Il y a un résumé en français ici.

Keywords
Socio-technical system or STS;assessment;future scenario
Report Number
DRDC-RDDC-2018-R211 — Scientific Report
Date of publication
01 Sep 2018
Number of Pages
40
DSTKIM No
CA047268
CANDIS No
807696
Format(s):
Electronic Document(PDF)

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